The Chosen

     

（圖片來源：http://tinyurl.com/crte4zv）

翻譯ptt板友：likeway

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Revisiting Lin vs. Felton decision

作者：Kevin Pelton

From the standpoint of the New York Knicks, hoping to justify their decision
to let Jeremy Lin leave in free agency and replace him at point guard with
Raymond Felton, this season couldn't have started any better. Felton was
excellent during the month of November as the Knicks got off to a surprising
start, while Lin struggled to find his place next to James Harden with the
Houston Rockets.

對尼克隊而言，十一月開季戰績長紅加上 Raymond Felton（Lin 的替代品）大爆發多少
合理化夏天沒有留下 Lin 的決定，因為 Lin 表現不佳且還在學習如何與 James Harden
一起打球。

Some three months later, it's worth revisiting the Lin decision. Felton's
success, like his team's, has proved fleeting. Meanwhile, the Rockets and Lin
are one of the league's hottest teams.

過了三個再來看看這個決定，好不？Felton 的爆發一閃即逝，而 Lin 的火箭則是聯盟最火
熱的球隊之一。

 

（圖片來源：http://tinyurl.com/c6lg4mm）


Misleading month
令人誤會的那個月

You remember November, right? President Barack Obama had just been
re-elected, Manti Te'o was merely a linebacker in contention for the Heisman,
and the Knicks were one of the NBA's best teams. Behind a flurry of
3-pointers and a smaller lineup with Carmelo Anthony at power forward, New
York started the season 14-4. The Knicks capped that stretch with their
second win over the Miami Heat and marked themselves as serious contenders in
the Eastern Conference.

還記得12月嗎？尼克隊是聯盟最強球隊之一。充滿激情的三分球和以 Carmelo Anthony 為
主的小個子先發陣容，讓尼克得到14-4戰績。包括兩次戰勝熱火的壯舉，也讓尼克成為東
區冠軍的熱門隊伍之一。

New York's backcourt of Felton and fellow newcomer Jason Kidd played a major
role in the fast start. Felton made 40 percent of his 3s in November while
averaging 14.6 points and 6.7 assists. Kidd was even better beyond the arc at
nearly 49 percent. As a team, the Knicks shot 41.6 percent from 3-point
range, powering the league's best offensive rating in the month.

Felton 和新同學 Jason Kidd 是這套快速球風的關鍵後場。Felton 12月的三分命中率超過
40%、平均得分14.6分、助攻6.7次，Kidd 則有高於生涯平均的49%命中率。尼克隊的三分
命中率高達41.6%，是聯盟中進攻最犀利的隊伍。

Everyone said the shooting couldn't last, and it didn't. Since Dec. 1, New
York has shot exactly the league average (35.8 percent) on 3-pointers.
Felton, at 31.4 percent, has been even worse. The Knicks are still a very
good offensive team, ranking sixth in points per possession from December
onward, but not the juggernaut they once were.

但有人說「你以為可以天天過年嗎！」，當然不行。自從12/1之後，尼克隊三分命中率回復到
聯盟平均35.8%，Felton 只有31.4%。尼克還保持著每回合進攻得分排行第6的佳績，但已經
不再像是 juggernaut 般無敵（Xman中的怪物，比巨石強森還壯）。

At the same time, as the chart shows, the Rockets were making the opposite
transformation, with Lin as one of the leaders. As Houston has figured out
how to utilize both Harden and Lin, the Rockets' offense has gone from
solidly above average in November to elite. Lin's own statistics, as measured
by wins above replacement, have seen a similar boost.

同時，以 Lin 為主的火箭卻產生另外相反的變化。當火箭隊學會如何融合 Lin 和 Harden，12月
份他們的進攻從平庸提升到了精英程度。Lin 的 wins above replacement 數據也有成長。

Knicks finding their level
尼克隊回歸現實

The Knicks, it turns out, are who we thought they were. Since peaking at
14-4, they have consistently played at about a 45-win pace -- matching
preseason expectations. Project that out through the rest of the schedule and
New York figures to finish somewhere around 49 wins, which should be good for
third in the East.

終究來說，尼克隊跟我們預期的一樣，除了14-4的高潮，漸漸走向平均45勝的節奏。預估季末
會有49勝左右的水準，占據東區第3。

Fears that the crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets will come back to win the
Atlantic Division are probably overstated. While the Nets have climbed within
two games in the standings, their point differential is barely better than
.500, suggesting they're likely to regress somewhat the rest of the way. The
same is true of the Atlanta Hawks, who sit fifth, leaving only the Chicago
Bulls with a healthy Derrick Rose as a serious threat to the Knicks'
top-three seed.

同城兄弟籃網不太可能超越老鷹進而贏過尼克，因為籃網只有領先兩場勝差，勝負分差只有0.5
多一點，最終會回歸正常。排名第6老鷹也是同樣狀況，所以唯一能威脅東區前三種子只有缺少
Rose 的公牛隊。

Felton, it turns out, is also who we thought he was -- not quite as bad as he
looked during his disastrous 2011-12 campaign in Portland, but not as good as
he played during his first half-season in New York or the opening month this
season. As much as Felton's playmaking and his ability to generate steals
have helped the Knicks, he has had a tough time scoring efficiently since the
3s stopped falling. Felton is making just 42.4 percent of his 2-point
attempts and has seen his true shooting percentage slip to 47.5 percent --
far worse than the league average of 53.2 percent.

Felton 也不出我們所料，雖不至於2011-12 拓荒者那樣悲慘，也無法超過上次在尼克隊的高水
準。當他三分命中下滑之後得分變得困難，就只能靠著抄截和指揮幫助球隊。Felton 兩分命中率
只有42.4%，真實命中率也只有47.5%，遠低於聯盟平均53.2%。

 

（圖片來源：http://tinyurl.com/boo9xjg）


Moving beyond Linsanity
超越林來瘋

For both the Knicks and Lin himself, Linsanity has become a distant memory.
Gone are the headlines, the screaming fans and the incredible numbers Lin
posted as the Knicks' go-to player last February. Instead of getting
Linsanity, the Rockets ended up with Jeremy Lin, developing point guard.

對尼克和 Lin 來說，林來瘋已經遠去。頭條新聞、瘋狂球迷和瘋狂得分秀也是去年二月的事了。
火箭隊得到的 Lin 只是個開發中的控衛。

Playing next to Harden, Lin isn't the focal point of the Houston offense the
way he was during the stretch that made him a household name. However,
he hasdefied critics by showing the ability to thrive in that smaller role. In
part, that's because of the adjustments made by the Rockets' coaching staff.
It also reflects Lin's 3-point shooting regressing to the mean. After
shooting 26.3 percent from downtown in November, Lin is at 34.4 percent
since, making him something of a threat when opponents leave him open.

在 Harden 身邊的 Lin，已經不是球隊的得分重心。而他無視旁人評論努力融入教練團設定的
角色球員之中。數據會回歸，Lin 從本來的26.3%三分命中率回到34.4%，稱得上對手該注意
的威脅。

The funny thing is Lin's 2012-13 stat line is relatively similar in many ways
to what he did last year in New York. His effective field goal percentage,
for example, is an identical .478. The difference in Lin's offense is
entirely a matter of volume. He's down from using 28.1 percent of the Knicks'
plays to 20 percent of Houston's, putting him precisely at the typical
figure, and his assist rate has dropped by almost a third. Lin's overall
performance, All-Star caliber in 2011-12's limited sample, is slightly below
league average this season. That's a more sustainable level of play.

有趣的是，Lin 的數據跟去年有許多相似之處。包括有效命中率 effective field goal 47.8%、
Lin 的被使用率從尼克隊的28.8%下降到20%。助攻率下降三分之一。Lin 的本季表現比聯盟
平均還低一些，尚有進步空間。

  

（圖片來源：http://tinyurl.com/brc8dt3）

Looking ahead
往前看吧

Lin's ability to coexist with Harden, who doesn't use as many plays as
Anthony but tends to dominate the ball to a greater extent, leads naturally
to the question of whether Lin could have fit into an Anthony-centric offense
at Madison Square Garden.

Harden 不像 Anthony 占據多數攻擊機會，卻傾向更全面的控制球權。讓人不禁想問 Lin 能否
同樣適應 Anthony 為中心的麥迪遜花園廣場。

There are advantages to Lin's current situation. Houston's fast pace, and the
sheer number of pick-and-rolls the Rockets run as the basis of their offense,
give him more opportunity to play in space than he might have had in New
York. Still, it's not clear that Felton is any better fit for the Knicks than
Lin would have been. According to mySynergySports.com, the two players have
been about equally effective on spot-up opportunities, with Lin averaging
0.91 points per shot to Felton's 0.95. Surprisingly, Lin is a much more
frequent spot-up shooter.

因為快節奏，Lin 明顯從火箭隊受益更多。加上 pick'N roll 的大量使用，讓 Lin 能在尼克隊沒有
的舒服空間打球。根據 mySynergySports.com，Lin 和 Felton 的 spot-up 每次得分為0.91
分和0.95分差不多接近，但 Lin 得到 spot-up 的機會更為頻繁。

We're also comparing these players as they are now, not as they will be at
the end of the three-year contract Houston gave Lin. While Felton, 28, is
likely to be about the same player at that point if not take a slight step
backward, the 24-year-old Lin still has room to grow as an outside shooter
and playmaker.

我們是以目前比現來比較兩位球員，而不是3年合約後的 Lin 和 Felton。3年後28歲的
Felton 可能跟現在一樣不上不下。但是目前24歲的 Lin 仍有成長為射手和 playmaker 的空間。

The Knicks won the early rounds of the Lin versus Felton decision. If Lin
already has pulled even, however, there may be no question who the better
choice was in a couple of years.

目前而言尼克隊對於 Lin 和 Felton 的決定是對的，但 Lin 照著目前節奏成長的話，他們兩人
誰比較好就不用多說了。

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資料來源：ESPN，http://goo.gl/Q7fbf

來源：http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Jeremy_Lin/M.1363790345.A.D7A.html